5. Here is a video showing how. The Hoenn Region Pokédex. There’s also a random 4% chance that 4 extra checks will be done. Apparently, yes your search level does increase your shiny chances. The top slider will be your default emulator speed while the bottom one will be your alternate speed. Rule #6: Starter Clause not. Route 102 (Exclusive to Omega Ruby) 274 Nuzleaf: Seedot evolution lvl. Open the DexNav and tap the 'mon you want, then tap 'search' If the DexNav finds it: Sneak up on it and encounter it as usual. Just west of the passage is the first Trainer on. The moderators of this forum are fade, keys, and Seasons . This video is a quick guide video on how to effectively use the DexNav feature in Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire to find pokemon with rare moves and a. Only move toward your destination while the DexNav is searching. Mega Gallade ORAS concept art. 5. I think it's a great way to shake up a normal playthrough by tossing in egg moves on wild pokemon! However, I've been wanting to try an Omega Ruby Nuzlocke, I can't think of a way to make the DexNav a fair option for catching pokemon, especially since the egg moves don't. asked Mar 24, 2015by pokefanlover12. It tells the player information about the wild Pokémon in the player's current location and allows the player to search for specific Pokémon. Also, it did say. People have been saying it's 1/512 for a long time with no proof, just theory. Preguntas sobre el encadenamiento de DexNav. In Pokémon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire, you can obtain Black Belts by stealing or capturing wild Makuhita, Throh, or Sawk. I've lvl 30 search on ralts, and now ralts gets shadow sneak. Pokémon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire sold 1,327,671 individual units on their first week on the Japanese market, being 613,946 from Pokémon Omega Ruby and 713,725 from Pokémon Alpha Sapphire, with a sell-through of 74. This thread is about the exciting new features of ORAS. Any Pokemon Can Mega Evolve. There’s also a random 4% chance that 4 extra checks will be done. Try looking in a different spot!" As it's completely based on RNG, it is unavoidable thus you cannot find a way to make that message stop popping up. Without truth, there is nothing. North Exit: Rustboro City South Exit: Route 105 East Exit: Petalburg City Access To: Petalburg Woods, Dewford Town. Hey everyone, I'm in the midst of playing O Ruby, and I gotta say, I really like the DexNav feature. Besides, it is too easy to break a chain, it is literally bad luck (The Pokemon Couldn't Be Found!) Best answer. I know they’re a dexnav exclusive, and I also know I’m looking in the right place (the desert on route 111), but not only is dexnav not working (as in not notifying me of Pokémon nearby) but I also can’t get any hidden encounter spots to show up unless I’m searching. FMAfreak121 8 years ago #4. 28% and 7. then use dexnav on whatever route you want. The National Pokédex makes its return in the Hoenn region. The DexNav is a feature in Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire that helps you easily find every Pokemon in the area, along with getting special abilities. Level Up Moves. For the 40 dexnav hunts I did on my shiny map quest my average was 1/271 (with the charm). Whenever a player captures or feints a hidden Pokemon of any species, the chain increases. The DexNav is one of the most important features as it can get you access to a variety of Pokémon. 1. The guide for those can be found here. Boards. , all of those will still up your search level by 1 because it. A crown emblem may appear in the upper right of the DexNav, to indicate the player's progress. Search for it. Since Pokémon Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire came out in North America, one of the most talked about features is the DexNav, and it's easy to see why. You can find wild Makuhita inside Granite Cave by simply walking around. The more you chain the chances of getting better IVs, held items, egg moves, and hidden abilities increase. Repeatedly use sweet scent to encounter hordes. Trainers. jpg 2,670 × 1,810; 548 KB. Running will break your chain, teleporting will break your chain - everything but fainting or catching the enemy pokemon will end your chain. I run all over the place and try near the 3 grassy areas and search for it, but. Ralts will appear in a bush. When you are close to the Pokémon, the DexNav will light up blue. We actually briefly touched on the method earlier; having seen a Pokémon (so it’s. In my adventures to find a GodRalts, I've been doing a /lot/ of DexNav (search level 260 someone send help), and I've found an interesting pattern. Choose which generation of games you're playing to see the Pokémon and capture methods. Dec 5, 2014. Compiled from various sites: Leaving the area will break your chain. To obtain Pokémon missing from your version you need to trade with someone who has the opposite version. Also. East Exit: Route 110. png 832 × 468; 442 KB. Availability: Route 101 is the earliest Wurmple can be found. Currently, this tool is only available in Pokémon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire. It is one of the most addictive features that. And there's the Delta Episode and flying around on Latios/Latias. If you're looking for a certain pokemon, it very. Level Move Type Category 1 Scratch: 1 Leer: 5 Pursuit: 9 Fake Tears: 13 Fury Swipes: 17 Feint. Well Bulbapedia said it was a DexNav 'mon, but Serebii is saying 5% of a horde only. What does this mean. the Pokémon you hatch isn't. DexNav Chain Bonus: up to 1/99 on 50th, 1/56 on 100th: Final Shiny Probability : N/A. If the DexNav circle is pressed, then the. 3. Link to my guide: goo. You battle it and make it faint. 2. Near Oldale Town, Brendan/May will explain the mechanics of hidden Pokémon, then a hidden Poochyena will appear. 1. Route 115 is an ocean adjacent route which is seperated into two parts. Reply -Boon. Pokemon. Gameandwatch2 8 years ago #10. This is for all areas in Hoenn not including the mirage spots. omega-ruby-alpha-sapphire; dexnav; pokedex; asked Mar 18, 2021 by MimikyuShadow. Each Pokémon has a distinct way of hiding. In your Pokedex you will have a line that says "Encountered: x times" for each Pokemon, and your search level for that particular Pokemon is going to be the same as the times encountered. In the Friend Safari, the chance for an encountered Pokémon to be Shiny is 5/4096 (about 1/819, or 0. @Fattitude. In addition to that, if the Pokémon hatched from an Egg with an egg move, was caught with an Egg move using the. DexNav will show you the stats of the pokemon. Accepted Answer. The Dexnav will sense a silhouette and a cry that will sound like Eevee. Method 1 – Mossdeep Space Center (One-time Only) Obtaining a Sun Stone. Scaring it off will break the chain, but defeating it will allow you to continue. Otherwise: Start making your way, sneaking, to a clearing where you can run back and forth without coming within 5 tiles of the grass. ORAS Nuzlocke - DexNav. The DexNav is very important app in your PokeNav Plus that can tell you what Pokemon are living in an area. none of them are filled), this simply means that the Pokemon has no full IVs. ORAS Series; SM Series; Movies. I often see people arguing over the current rate of shiny pokemon from dexnav. Capture the Pokémon you want shiny. TASTE MY INITIATIVE. Ralts will appear in a bush. Repeatedly use sweet scent to encounter hordes. #7. Access To: Rusturf Tunnel. Best answer. Because PokeRadar patch RNG was only the beginning! . The biggest issue people have with it is the lack of a Battle Frontier. How to use the DexNav in Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire (ORAS) Pidjay 432 subscribers Subscribe 243 27K views 8 years ago This video is a quick guide video on how to effectively use. Those appear to be the actual numbers. Tap the Pokemon you want on the dexnav, and it will begin the search. But the only way to find it is to use the Dexnav. (As far as I can tell, ability information isn't sent to the game. Meteor Falls is located southwest of Fallarbor Town and south of Route 114. It's simple: Go into the grass and the Pokèmon that you have already caught are registered. Open comment sort options Best; Top; New; Controversial; Q&A; Add a Comment [deleted] •. I never used to "catch 'em all" when playing, and I always flew trough games getting myself disappointed when there was "nothing to do" anymore. In other words, where the Pokemon warps afterwards in chaining with DexNav. Repeat. For the most part, it was what it said on the box, an R/S remake. -B2W2 Dream Radar*: All Pokemon caught using the Dream Radar have their HA, if they have one in gen 5. Search for it. The DexNav is the red square with a Poké Ball and Pikachu on the bottom screen. Today we're going to look at Dexnav for ORAS. Pokemon Omega Ruby. The DexNav is a new application of the PokeNav Plus that was re-introduced in Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby games. Recent questions tagged dexnav 0 votes. XxOblivion77 8 years ago #1. But once I tried it alongside ‘100% catch rate’, ‘always 3 star potential’ and ‘DexNav search level. Granite Cave - B1F. this is what Ive been aiming for!! I wonder if itd be crazy to try for shadow sneak with telepathy. Eventually you'll be able to see the first move it has (which should be an egg move if it has one). Touch the icon and select search. 1. I've lvl 30 search on ralts, and now ralts gets shadow sneak. Each Magby only has a 5% chance of holding a Magmarizer, but you can use your DexNav to improve your odds. Sweet, I'm doing a dexnav shiny only run of ORAS and my final team member is going to be flygon since getting shiny bagon is hard as hell. Liked the DexNav and the epilogue. Breeding with Shiny Parent. Meteor Falls is located southwest of Fallarbor Town and south of Route 114. This is because you get Wailmer with the Good Rod only. Use dexnav and select skitty. Issue: After catching a pokemon using the pokemon generator cheat, the game freezes, and when trying to close citra or restarting the emulation etc. As your DexNav chain for a Pokemon increases, does that Pokemon have a higher chance of having a beneficial nature? If you release a Pokemon, does it count in your Pokedex and your DexNav that you have that Pokemon? Why can't I find Gible on Route 111 using the DexNav? When can you find hidden DexNav Pokemon in ORAS?Issue: I can’t sneak in Ruby omega, I tried changing the settings of the controls but it still does not work. Dec 5, 2014. Don't give up, it took me about 3 hours of Dexnav chaining to get my timid synchronizer Ralts. Access To: Sky Pillar. Pyre: Growlithe, Elgyem, Bronzor. EragonRider07 8 years ago #3. Meteor Falls: Clefairy, Dieno, Druddigon. ORAS | Smogon Forums. The more your seach level raises the more chances you have. If you leave the route and re-enter then you will break the chain. DexNav is just a flat rate, similar to the Friend Safari in X/Y. Try using the Dexnav, it's a lot easier to find one that way. So, DexNav is the alternative for most Pokémon in. Clicking the button opens a menu listing all species that can be found via. TheBeastPokeBaller averaged 1 shiny every 199. 1 Answer. In between the north and south segments of the route is the desert. LV refers to the number of times you encounter that pokemon. For any hidden Pokémon, this check is performed at least once. Route 101 is a very short forested route in the south of Hoenn. Dex Nav Chaining is NOT a factor in how often shiny pokemon appear. By comparison, the natural chance of finding a Shiny Pokémon is approximately 0. -ORAS DexNav*: Pokemon found using the DexNav have a chance of having their HA. As far as I can tell, you can't search for a Pokémon you haven't caught. DexNav Search Level and you. How to chain. You must at least see the Pokemon you are going to chain. Second, when you're sometimes in an area, you will see a Pokémon's tail coming out of the grass or water. You keep doing that even if dex nav fails to find deerling each time. In High Tide, between the hours of 09:00-15:00 and 21:00-03:00, there is a lot of water and the item Shoal Shell can be obtained. Next, search for that Pokemon again and do as the sentence in bold says. First, it can tell you what Pokémon are in the area you're in. You get this special app installed by your rival, Brenden/May, right after receiving the Pokédex . Dexnav, or the Pokémon Dexnav, is a feature from the popular Pokémon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire games. This is by no means a tutorial on how to get a shiny, a. In the cave, there are a variety of wild Pokémon, and a small extra area accessible if you know the move Strength. Run. Fishing Rod Chaining. Compiled from various sites: Leaving the area will break your chain. If you haven't, then its up to the. O PokéNav Plus é uma nova versão do antigo PokéNav existente em Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald. DexNav is one of the best features ever. Rule #4: If you encounter a non-Dexnav Pokemon before you get your encounter, you may faint it and get a Dexnav encounter. From what I can tell, anything from Entree forest will be HA, unless it doesn't have HA (at that time). commented Mar 18, 2021 by MimikyuShadow. FS: Bug Combee-Illumise-Pinsir. Here you will find Eevee and other Pokémon such as Nincada and the common Zigzagoon. This method uses an old and simple item introduced in the very first generation of Pokémon: the Fishing Rod. I still haven't gotten my shiny kecleon in over 300 chain, and 200 before that. It's possible to find the hidden DexNav Pokémon when you finish the story with Primal Groudon/Kyogre. DexNav is legal unless stated otherwise, though keep in mind that the encounter can't be controlled. At the top, there is a waterfall and various cave architecture. dexnav. So I could trigger the first DexNav encounter, and if it's something I want, great, if not, I'll run into the grass and get a random encounter instead. Found Pokémon Count: Shows the amount of times a certain Pokémon has been encountered. TM100: Confide----20: 100: The user tells the target a secret, and the target loses its ability to concentrate. Zetsubou4 8 years ago #1. 34% and 77. >: (. Steps: Go to the place you want to hunt. The DexNav displays the following when you are close enough to the pokemon you are trying to chain: Level. For instance, say you are chaining a Ralts and you can't find one, but your DexNav picks up a Surskit instead. jpg 2,654 × 1,878; 457 KB. Oras dexnav RiderGo489 6 years ago #1 I am trying to get 3 iv Pokémon in oras through dexnav if i increase the search (encountered) number will I encounter 3 iv Pokémon. 3 Post-Game;The DexNav search shiny encounter rate this data suggests is 1/308, but that rate is probably too high. The Pokemon will appear at the surface of the water, and you'll have to sneak up on it while surfing. For the higher level on DexNav, you will start get a chance to find its Hidden Ability. The Stars are the amount of Perfect IV's the Pokemon has. ) 2. Activate dexnav, then use a repel. 1/8192. This includes all non-shiny locked legendaries that you battle, XY berry trees, ambush encounters, ORAS dexnav poochyena, kecleon, electrode, voltorb, and spiritomb: 3DSRNGTool: Normal Wild Encounters: 1: 1/4096: 3: 1/1365. DexNav can be reliable, or can't be. Exclusive to Pokémon Omega Ruby #273 Seedot Grass #274 Nuzleaf Grass · DarkIf a Hidden Pokémon suddenly appears, the DexNav will automatically search for the Pokémon and attempt to display information about it. With the Shiny Charm, this rate is increased to 7/4096 (about 1/585, or 0. What’s so great about the DexNav? The app displays the Pokémon you can catch on land, while fishing (once you get the fishing rod) and on the water when you. DexNav hunting is the best odds over anything that's random encounter. HM01: Cut: 50: 95: 30--The target is cut. Alpha Sapphire: If Shroomish senses danger, it shakes its body and scatters spores from the top of its head. The DexNav is one of the apps on your PokeNav and, when selected, will show you information about the current area's wild Pokemon on the bottom screen. Here's a link to my guide if you want to know. Little details are given about sneaking, and even though it is possible to sneak in the demo (carefully move your circlepad), the exact effect of sneaking can not be determined with the dexnav disabled in the demo. 1 Answer. 2. Leaving the route per se doesn't re-activate the DexNav. Some analysis based on real encounters gave some results making us think about a 1/200 or 1/300 probability, but this does not really convinced me. Masuda on ORAS is a little over 1/512 odds and dexnav chaining is a little over 1/300 iirc. Catch a Poochyena. . Move Tutor. It's possible to find the hidden DexNav Pokémon when you finish the story with Primal Groudon/Kyogre. omega-ruby-alpha-sapphire; dexnav; asked Dec 23, 2020 by Vamp edited Dec 24, 2020 by Fizz. [Infinite Medicine (x999)] 08C6F5FE 000003E7. That's how I got my Adaptability Skrelp. - Chaining can boost the rate up to 40 times the norm, equal to the number of links in the chain. Another part of the DexNav is the ability for you to scan Pokémon you see in the overworld. It has a small building where you can take a rest just by the tunnel. South Exit: Oldale Town. Be polite and charming and you may get more than one!omega-ruby-alpha-sapphire; dexnav; asked Dec 2,. This guy, located in the house in the north-west of Fallarbor Town, will teach your Pokémon any move that is in its level up move list. Pokemon 6th gen shiny calculator. These Pokemon Omega Ruby cheats are anything related to Pokemon and modifiers as well. 3. They are often found keeping still under fallen leaves. Easiest way is searching with the dex nav, it doesnt matter which pokemon it is. First, it can tell you what Pokémon are in the area you're in. DexNav Sometimes, when you're encountering a Pokémon, they will come with a hold item. It connects Ever Grande City in the south with the Pokemon League in the north. Shoal Cave: Delibird, Dewgong, Cubchoo. Blueboy1299. However, for a few Pokémon, you will get something completely unusual, you will get a hold item that is not typical of that Pokémon, such as a Lucky Egg. TASTE MY INITIATIVE. - Running from battle. Most of the time, the DexNav shows which Pokemon can be found on that part of the map. When the DexNav Search Level is five or higher, the chance of encountering shiny Pokemon is increased. DexNav RNG Abuse Guide . This page is to detail all of the version exclusives and will be added upon as we get more information. 0. 1 answer 307 views. Since Pokémon Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire came out in North America, one of the most talked about features is the DexNav, and it's easy to see why. e. Pokemon Omega Ruby. After you've caught a pokemon once, it's image (if it can be caught in the area you're in) should be colored in and you can select that pokemon to search for it specifically. That was a great in depth analysis. This can only be entered once the Go-Goggles. This Pokemon does not evolve. The Dexnav chain isn't broken when you save, quit, encounter another Pokemon, or anything else in ORAS. New comments cannot be posted. The DexNav is an integral app of your PokéNav that allows you to search for a Pokémon of your choice in the wild. The DexNav is an integral app of your PokéNav that allows you to search for a Pokémon of your choice in the wild. But it's entirely up to you. So if I've got this correct the chance to encounter a shiny rises with the total number of dexnav encounters for each pokemon at around 1/381 at just 50 entries. Level Move Type Category 1 Leer: 1 Tackle: 3 Odor Sleuth: 8 Bite: 10 Baby-Doll Eyes: 12So this time I'm going to show you how to chain in the desert. At least it didn't take that long to get an everstone so I can nature breed. Even though we already have a lot of posts about the DexNav across r/pokemon and r/DexNav, there's still a lot to discover. ~ Serebii. De las adiciones más prácticas y que más me han gustado de ORAS. serebii and bulbapedia are 2 wonderful websites that wouldve said something if there was proof that it. So far I have search level 999 and can only. Relatively new to playing ORAS - a new quarantine hobby I guess - back in the day I loved sapphire, ruby, and emerald games and decided to buy the remakes. Route 131 is another sea route, connecting Route 130 and Pacifidlog Town, which lacks islands for items and various non-swimming trainers. But the only way to find it is to use the Dexnav. Doing so may cause a Hidden version of that Pokémon to. Some analysis based on real encounters gave some results making us think about a 1/200 or 1/300 probability, but this does not really convinced me. OK, I really wanted to get a Prankster Illumise for my in-game team but I am having a lot of trouble getting them to appear with the PokeNav. Most pre-national dex pokemon can be found in hordes, but there are some exceptions. Chain Fishing Chain : + Shiny charm : Final Shiny Probability : N/A Many people have been speculating on the probabilities to find a shiny pokemon with the dexnav on pokemon ORAS, but we don't really know actually what are the probabilities. The Dexnav will sense a silhouette and a cry that will sound like Eevee. Level Move Type Category 1 Growl: 1 Tackle: 4 Tail Whip: 9 Ember: 13 Flame Wheel: 17 Stomp: 21In today's Video I Talk about the Top 5 Things about the Dexnav in Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire! Take your Live Streams/Youtube Videos to the Next L. png 581 × 1,280; 464 KB. According to a previous version of the DexNav page: The chance of encountering a Shiny Pokémon increases, estimated to reach 0. So, I'm playing Pokemon Alpha Sapphire, which uses the bottom screen for some actions, particularly when using the DexNav to search for hidden pokemon. 0. Not really. . West Exit: Route 124. As far as your question, resetting the game breaks your chain. Do you need the shiny charm for productive. I've been lucky on routes 110 and 118 personally! If you have a Frisk ability Pokemon, just keep trying till you find one! If you're using the DexNav, wait till you see it has a held. It's not necessarily realistic to hope to chain for a perfect (I assume you mean 6 IV) Ditto, but you could at least hope for 5 - but you can expect to potentially spend hours doing this depending. Friend Safari shiny rates come from this thread. Since the level increases with every encounter of a particular Pokemon, I'm curious if it goes up to level 99, 100 or has a lower level like 30 or 50. Fiery Loophole ほのおのぬけみち. I typically start finding them at about 20. 2 votes. Note you must have previously found this Pokemon. The bugfix changed the behavior, so. Step 2: Head left where an old woman is located. 36 encounters, or a 1/199. use the dexnav to look for it if you've encountered it already. Get a Mew Through PokeNav. Try looking in a different spot! (HELP LOL) NessEggman 8 years ago #1. The Hoenn Pokédex in Omega Ruby & Alpha Sapphire is almost identical to the original games, but includes the nine extra Pokémon evolutions/pre-evolutions introduced in Generation 4: Gallade, Probopass, Magnezone,. Due to an oversight the DexNav only chooses egg moves from the lowest evolutionary stage regardless of what stage you actually encounter. Stats: Once it reaches Level 10, it has stats that are very good early game, but okay at best mid game and poor late game. The DexNav is a brand new feature that appears on first sights to be a derivation of both the PokéRadar and the shaking spots that exist in Pokémon X & Y. Pull out your DexNav/get a Pokemon with the Frisk ability! (I would go with the DexNav personally. Level 8. If you run from the Pokémon, then the chain will break. 12%). The Dexnav chain isn't broken when you save, quit, encounter another Pokemon, or anything else in ORAS. Mega Evolutions are listed separately. Putting your 3DS in standby mode (If you see your trainer starting to move, stretch, or sleep, you may may have broken the chain) Encountering another Pokemon than the one you're chaining. 1. Pokémon Omega Ruby & Pokémon Alpha Sapphire - Version Exclusives - Pokémon. Mega Evolutions Hoenn starter Pokémon. a pokemon with false swipe and moves that can 1 hit KO the pokemon you are chaining. Nuzlocke Rules. Quick Egg Hatch. I think the dexnav is the oras equivalent of the friend safari. North Exit: Route 112. (ps I was one who said about ralts on other board xD) 3DS FC: 1375-7212-9671 ACNL: Usagi of the Moon. Circle around the water while on the back of a Sharpedo (only pokemon fast enough to reach the shoreline in enough time to hit a chain) so that the dexnav actually finds a bagon. " Sensei_Ochiba 9 years ago #3. The new Dexnav for ORAS is hands down my favorite new feature so I figured I'd make a quick video explaining how to use it to help find pokemon with hidden a. com. However, eggs for Masuda method are tricky in gen 6 because the eggs won't go straight to a box if the party is full. Estoy familiarizado con las reglas generales de encadenamiento de brillos usando el DexNav en Pokemon Rubí Omega y Zafiro Alfa. Rising Ruby and Sinking Sapphire are modifications of Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire that allow you to play through the main game with all 721 Pokémon obtainable and go through the challenge of a. DexNav chaining increases the chance of the Pokemon having better IVs, but the higher the chain is doesn't effect the chance of it being shiny. But now, we have someone who found the in-game code with the true facts! (As well as chain exact chainfishing odds!) A french coder by the name MrNbaYoh decided to look into. Hoje iremos falar sobre uma das maiores novidades de Pokémon Omega Ruby e Alpha Sapphire: PokéNav Plus. Try looking in a different. also bypasses shiny locked pokemon [which I tested on], (which because of in game story animation, assuming to be: Groudon, Kyogre, Rayquaza, Deoxys)Here is the great thing though, it doesn't even have to be the same Pokemon. Talk to him/her to start a battle. xDiamondx 8 years ago #3. . While in Pokemon X/Y you could chain encounters to increase the likelihood of running into shiny Pokemon, it appears that using the DexNav in Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire confers a flat bonus to your likelihood of running into shinies, regardless of how many encounters you've "chained". How could I solve it? System Information Operating System: Mac OS Mojave 10. Running away from a DexNav battle. -No items mid-battle. I cannot, however, use the DexNav to hunt for specific catches, such as using the search function to force my first encounter to be a certain Pokemon or by intentionally scaring off a Pokemon in order to get a different DexNav encounter. Yeah, but Mah egg move Bagonz. Best answer. One of the features I am personally looking forward to is sneaking. Many people have been speculating on the probabilities to find a shiny pokemon with the dexnav on pokemon ORAS, but we don't really know actually what are the probabilities.